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Prediction for CME (2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-16T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28221/-1
CME Note: Weak signatures detected in solar wind at L1 indicate possible arrival. | Very faint CME seen in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the faintness. The leading edge is primarily seen towards the S/SW, and is best seen in SOHO LASCO C2. The potential source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-12-15T20:48Z in SDO AIA 304 that is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA and brightening loops in SDO AIA 94 around 2023-12-15T21:05Z. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T00:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28223/1
Model Inputs:
2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=363.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-12-16T09:51Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-20T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-18T06:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-21T04:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-19T22:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-19T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231216_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 56.13 hour(s)
Difference: 0.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-12-17T16:18Z

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